A top Republican in the United States Congress says the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan “are very high” after a US general caused consternation with a memo suggesting war would happen in two years’ time.
General Mike Minihan, who is in charge of the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its around 110,000 members in a memo dated February 1 but made public on Friday January 27, saying: “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”
“I hope he is wrong, … I think he is right though” said Michael McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, to news reporters on Sunday January 28.
Although General Minihan’s opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Pentagon, they do indicate worry at the highest levels of the US military concerning a potential Chinese effort to impose control over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.
In 2024, there will be presidential elections in the US and Taiwan, which could present an opportunity for China to launch a military operation, Minihan wrote.
If China is unable to conquer Taiwan peacefully, “they are going to look at a military invasion in my judgement. We have to be prepared for this”, McCaul said.
After the bungled US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which raised the possibility of war with China, he charged the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden with projecting weakness.
“The odds are very high that we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific,” McCaul said.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier this month that he seriously doubted that ramped-up Chinese military activity near the Taiwan Strait was a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.
A Pentagon representative stated on Saturday that the general’s remarks were “not representative of the department’s view on China”.
Author- Roberta Appiah
