With just under two months remaining before the December 2024 elections, a final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics shows opposition leader John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) maintaining a significant lead over Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
The poll indicates that Mahama commands 51.1% of the committed voters, while Bawumia trails with 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako hold 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively, with other candidates collectively securing 1.3%.
In the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama still leads with 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%. The poll also highlights voter apathy as a major issue for the NPP, with 16% of potential non-voters identified as NPP supporters, while only 3% of NDC supporters fall into this category.
Floating voters and those who declined to disclose their affiliations make up 38% and 39%, respectively, of those who say they will not vote.
Among floating voters, Mahama holds a commanding 31-point lead (54% to 23%) over Bawumia, and an 18-point lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations.
Mahama also leads Bawumia among first-time voters, with a 46% to 38% advantage, an improvement from the tied result in July 2024.
Bawumia faces declining support among Muslim voters, a key demographic for his campaign, with a 4% drop in support from July to October 2024.
The poll reveals that 70% of voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 remain loyal to Bawumia, while 19% have switched to Mahama.
Additionally, 5% have shifted to either Kyerematen or Bediako. In regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have moved to Mahama.
Mahama leads in 12 regions, having added Bono to his column since the July poll. His strongholds include Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta regions. Bawumia leads in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
Kyerematen and Bediako are emerging as notable contenders, especially in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, where their combined presence is chipping away at Bawumia’s dominance.
In the Ashanti region, where the NPP aims to secure 85% of the vote, Bawumia currently holds 66%, with Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyerematen at 4%.
Mahama is outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia trails his candidates in 79 constituencies, reflecting the potential impact of Kyerematen and Bediako on the NPP’s performance.
The economy, jobs, and education are the key issues driving voter sentiment ahead of the elections. The economy remains the top concern, cited by 70% of respondents, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).
Voters are also influenced by the current economic conditions (55%), party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
On manifesto favorability, the NDC leads the NPP by 14 points, with the NPP’s manifesto holding a net favorability rating of +6 points.
The poll further reveals widespread discontent with the country’s direction, as 62% of voters believe Ghana is heading in the wrong direction.
This sentiment is strongest among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). Meanwhile, 64% of NPP voters believe the country is on the right track.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job approval rating stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving. The government’s overall performance is rated poorly or very poorly by 49% of voters, while 30% rate it as good or very good.
As the December elections approach, Mahama’s lead in key regions and among important voter demographics positions him as the front-runner, while Bawumia and the NPP face mounting challenges from independent candidates and voter dissatisfaction with the economy.
