Electric vehicles no longer seem like a futuristic dream, but they remain a rarity in countires like American streets today, accounting for less than one percent of the nation’s auto sales.
Yet, when future auto historians look back, they may pinpoint 2017 as the year electric vehicles went from a promising progressive fad to an industry-wide inevitability.
China’s influence:
In addition to setting aggressive production quotas for Electric Vehicles (EV), the world’s largest auto market plans to scrap internal combustion engines entirely as soon as 2030.
The debut of Tesla’s Model 3:
The company’s first mass-market vehicle has ushered in an era of excitement about EV’s because of the car’s slick design and starting price of around $35,000.
Major automakers ramp up electric vehicle plans: General Motors finished 2016 as the world’s third-largest automaker, meaning its decision to create 20 new electric vehicles by 2023 is bound to have an impact on the global marketplace. Car brands such as Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Audi, BMW and Ford have also announced EV plans in recent months.
The all-electric future is still years away, experts say. But as EV momentum builds, we’ve listed some ways in which EV adoption is expected to play out:
The future of Big Oil
Not so long ago, minuscule sales of EVs made it hard for big oil to take the threat of electric cars seriously. Now, thanks to growing demand in Asia and Europe, the question facing experts is no longer whether EVs will take over, but when?
A Barclays’ analysis concluded that oil demand could be slashed by 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide in 2025. If electric vehicle penetration reaches 33 percent, oil demand could shrink by a whopping 9 million barrels per day by 2040, Barclays concluded. Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance puts the number at 8 million barrels by 2040, more than the “current combined production of Iran and Iraq,” they note.
It’s the vehicles on the road that will determine gasoline demand, not the vehicles being sold that day.
Gas stations will change
Some experts believe electric cars have sounded the death knell of the American gas station, but others aren’t so sure.
Until charging times drop dramatically and superchargers become widespread, wait times for EV charging at gas stations could turn those stations into “hospitality-type venues,” according to Guido Jouret, the ABB’s chief digital officer, who noted that many gas stations make more money selling soda and food than they do selling gas.
Environmental impact
Depending on how electricity is produced in your region, plug-ins are from 30 percent to 80 percent lower in greenhouse gas emissions, according to Gina Coplon-Newfield, the director of the Sierra Club’s Electric Vehicles Initiative.
If General Motor’s 2016 U.S. sales—more than 3 million vehicles—were converted to EV’s, the country would benefit in the following ways, according to an analysis provided by the Sierra Club:
35.6 million barrels of petroleum reduced annually, creating less of a dependency on foreign oil, further boosting demand on domestic electricity and keeping oil money spent in-state.
164.5 million pounds of carbon monoxide reduced annually.
11 million pounds of nitrogen oxides reduced annually, harmful to respiratory health and creates smog.
1 million pounds of particulate matter reduced annually.
9 million pounds of volatile organic compounds reduced annually.
The evolving future of auto mechanics
One of the primary reasons that auto owners visit a mechanic is for an oil change, which raises a question: What happens when vehicles no longer rely on oil? It’s not that electric vehicles won’t require maintenance (they still have brakes, tires and windshield wipers, after all), but their engines are far simpler, experts say.
